The future of China is due to the transition to a new model of economic development, rather than with GDP growth. And it will require not only political reconstruction in the country, but also the expansion of its global military presence in the world, informs «Pacific Russia».

China’s economic slowdown (to an average of 7% per year) due to the fact that China joins the group of countries with middle-income countries, as well as the exhaustion of the demographic factors of growth, the accumulation of structural problems in the economy, deteriorating natural environment and a variety of other circumstances . Workforce in China is reduced from 2012; to expand this process is reversed, will take decades, and it will have a significant impact on economic growth.

China’s future is connected with the transition to a new model of economic development, which was announced back in 2008 — with the support of the domestic market, the priority development of high-tech industries, changes in income distribution in society, the creation of the social security system and a number of other innovations.

Building a relatively well-off, educated society with a moderate pace of revenue growth while rejecting export orientation, turning the country into a major source of investment and an important exporter of technology will have important political consequences. When real incomes are growing double-digit rates every year, it is not too interested in politics. It is ready to accept any explanation of the authorities and turn a blind eye to the shortcomings. The era of rapid GDP growth was enough dead Marxism-Leninism and Mao Zedong Thought, in which the party ideologues have made cosmetic changes according to the current situation.

Now this will not be enough. On the one hand, the Chinese government will have a much more responsive to popular discontent. An unprecedented anti-corruption campaign in the Chinese state apparatus that unfolded in recent years, partly as a response to these new challenges. On the other hand, in addition to a more effective response to displeases lack of power will have to offer society and a positive program. The Chinese leadership will be engaged in the reform of the political system. And for this purpose for many years carefully studying the experience of other Asian countries and Russia.

At the same time changing the nature of the interaction between the Chinese economy and the economies of Western countries. With the entry of China in the number of countries with an average income of its role world assembly shop gradually begins to decline. Relatively low-tech, labor-intensive production is gradually transferred to Indonesia and Vietnam. To maintain economic growth and ultimately to the survival of China should become an independent exporter of high-tech products manufactured by Chinese companies under the Chinese brand, that is a full-fledged competitor to the major developed economies.

The second external factor that affects the future of China, — access to external sources of raw materials. China is already the world’s largest importer of hydrocarbons and the world’s largest energy consumer. His needs and today are so high that they can not be met by the resources of a single country or even the whole region. China has become the largest trading partner in Africa, the second largest (after the EU) trade partner of Russia and the second as trade partner in Latin America and the Caribbean.

How quickly the globalization of economic presence of China followed the globalization of political and military presence, is still questionable. But the construction of the Chinese ocean-going navy, including aircraft carriers, as well as the ongoing coordination with the Government of Namibia to the establishment of the first overseas Chinese military base clearly indicate the presence of such intentions.

As for Russia, the Ukrainian crisis seems to firmly define its place in the main geopolitical confrontation of the XXI century. This year, for the first time, Russia and China will hold joint naval maneuvers in the distance from the shore area of ​​the two countries — the Mediterranean Sea. And this is one of the signs of an impending future in which Moscow will support China and play an active role in the development of China’s great power.

Vasily Kashin, an expert «Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies», RBC Daily